Probability in Warhammer Underworlds - Part 3 Magic

Checkout my Warhammer Underworlds - Contents Page for more articles.

 

This is part 3 of a little series on Probability in Warhammer Underworlds.

I am continuing my look at how the probability of dice rolls in Warhammer Underworlds impacts the use and roles of individual fighters. Today, I am looking into magic dice. I have always like wizards but I keep hearing that magic is not that good in Underworlds. I need to investigate...

Magic dice

Magic dice were introduced into Underworlds, for the second season, Nightvault and have made a come back in Gnarlwood and Wrydhollow.  These blue dice have 6 sides and 3 unique symbols.

The Critical appears once, the Focus appears twice and the Channel appears three times on each dice.

With a single dice roll there is a 1/6 chance (16.67%) of a Critical being rolled. There is also a 5/6 chance that Critical will not be rolled. This is really important for calculating the chance of success with multiple dice.

A 2/6 chance (33.33%) of a Focus being rolled.

There is a 3/6 chance (50%) of a Channel being rolled.

So to calculate success (with a single die),  we need to count the number of sides that would be successes and divide it by the number of faces on the die. When calculating success, with multiple dice, we need to consider the chance of failure first, in order to calculate success.

Importantly, Magic dice do not have supports on any face.

There are two main ways to use magic dice in Underworlds:

• Spell attack actions
• Gambit spells

Wizards

Before we go any further, in almost all cases, you will be using two dice to use magic in Underworlds. This is because in most cases wizards are level 2. You can work out the wizard level by looking at the number next to the icon to the left of the fighters name (I have put it inside a yellow circle) on the fighters card. 

So with Hedkrakka, he is a level 2 wizard, so would roll 2 magic dice for Spell Attack Actions and Gambit spells.

Whereas, Karthaen is a level 1 wizard, so would only roll 1 magic dice for Spell Attack Actions and Gambit spells. When Karthaen Inspires he becomes a level 2 wizard.

Probability

When two magic dice are rolled these are all of the possible combinations that can occur. (From now on, I will use 2 dice as the basis for all the probabilities in this article.)

To calculate the chance of a particular roll, count up the number of times it appears in the grid and then divide it by 36 (the number of options available). 

Therefore:

Spell Attack Actions

Let us take a look at Leona from Domitan's Stormcoven. She has two attacks, one Attack with 2 dice needing Smash and one Spell Attack with 2 dice needing Focus dice. Now, my feeling was that the Smash attack was more reliable but am I correct? (Please see my earlier article on Probability of Attacks)

Leonard Stratosi from Domitan's Stormcoven

The Smash attack

There are three chances for failure on each dice and there are two dice. The chance  of failure is 3/6 x 3/6 = 9/36.Therefore, the chance of success is 27/36, which equals 75%.

The Focus Spell attack

There are three chances for failure on each dice and there are two dice. The chance  of failure is 3/6 x 3/6 = 9/36.Therefore, the chance of success is 27/36, which equals 75%.

So surprisingly (for me), each attack is equally likely to succeed. 

Now what about Heddrakka?

Hedkrakka from Hedkrakka's Madmob

The Fury attack

There are four chances for failure on each dice and there are two dice. The chance  of failure is 4/6 x 4/6 = 16/36.Therefore, the chance of success is 20/36, which equals 55.56%.

The Focus Spell attack

There are three chances for failure on each dice and there are two dice. The chance  of failure is 3/6 x 3/6 = 9/36.Therefore, the chance of success is 27/36, which equals 75%.

Hedkrakka's Spell attack is more reliable but will cause less damage than his Smash attack. So, if you need to drive an opponent from an objective then the Spell attack is probably better (plus it has the extra range). If causing damage is your objective then you might want to consider the more powerful but less reliable Fury attack.

Gambit spells

Of course, the whole point of wizards in fantasy games is to cast spells. Underworlds is no exception. Gambit spells are a special type of Gambit cards used, by wizards, in the Power Phase. Each spell has a casting value. The chance of making this roll is shown in the table below. If the casting role fails then spell is not cast. This is unlike Gambit ploys, which always work. So, I would like to know 'When is a spell worth taking instead of a ploy?'. Clearly, the lower the chance of success, the less likely I am to use the spell unless it has a significant benefit. However, I cannot rely on this benefit, as my primary games plan, because I may fail to cast the spell. Additionally, if my Wizard is taken out of action before I use the spell, then the card is just a waste and is now taking up space in my hand.

The easiest spells to cast are those that require a single Channel (Lightnings). They should be successful 88.89% of the time. In a Championship game, where all the cards are available you can probably find a ploy that does the same job with no risk of failure. In Nemesis games, these spells provide access to 'ploy' abilities, which are now in shorter supply.

Abasoth's Screaming Idols from Seismic Shock Rivals deck

The next easiest set of spells to cast are those that require a single Focus (Swirly). These are successful 75% of the time. The additional difficulty with casting is rewarded with slight better effects. 

Localised Quake from Seismic Shock Rivals deck

The mid-range casting difficulty spells include the 2 Channel (2 Lightnings) (44.4% chance of success) and much rarer single Critical (30.5% chance of success) Gambit spells. These spells provide large buffs to a warband (Danse of Deintalos), or damage (Devolve), often with effects that persist to the end of the round. 

Danse of Deintalos from The Exiled Dead

Devovle from Grashrak's Despoilers Rivals deck

The most difficult spells to cast are those that require 2 focus (25% chance of success). These spells must offer significant benefits to a warband or severely disrupt the opponent to be worth taking due to the risk of failure. Curse of Da Bad Moon has the potential to cause damage to multiple enemy fighters.

Curse of Da Bad Moon from Zarbag's Gitz faction deck

Finally, I thought the spell Mindwipe deserved a special mention. It clearly shows how the difficulty of casting gives improved benefits. 

Mindwipe for Seismic Shock Rivals deck

Overall, magic is thematic for fantasy games. In Underworlds, If you are willing to gamble it can provide powerful buffs to your warband and hamper your opponent. It should not, however, be used as the sole tactic for winning games. If you try this, the dice may have the last laugh.

One final note, Blacklash. 

Backlash occurs if you role 2 of more Crits in a magic role. With 2 dice the chance this will occur is 1/36 (2.7%). I do not think upgrades are worth taking to stop it. If it does happen, accept it after all you chose to dabble with the stuff of Chaos.

Part 1 - Attacking Probability can be read here.

Part 2 - Defence Probability can be read here.

Thanks for reading. Do you use magic in your Underworlds games? What spells are your favourites? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Take care and I hope you come back soon.